No News is Bad News

Two colleagues of mine from the Sloan School of Management, SP Kothari and Peter Wysocki have recently released a working paper that addresses this question: "Do Managers Withhold Bad News?" According to their analysis, an event study, managers do in fact withold bad news:
In this study, we examine whether managers delay disclosure of bad news relative to good news. If managers accumulate and withhold bad news up to a certain threshold, but leak and immediately reveal good news to investors, then we expect the magnitude of the negative stock price reaction to bad news disclosures to be greater than the magnitude of the positive stock price reaction to good news disclosures. We present evidence consistent with this prediction. Our analysis suggests that management, on average, delays the release of bad news to investors.
In case you are wondering why managers would be willing to run the substantial litigation risk associated with failure to disclose bad news, SP and Peter have an explanation- "career concerns", that is to say, good old-fashioned self-interest.
While managers have incentives to disclose bad news early under certain circumstances, we conjecture that these incentives can be outweighed by other considerations such as career concerns. Career concerns can motivate managers to withhold bad news and gamble that subsequent corporate events (i.e., future corporate turnaround or restructuring) will allow them to “bury” the bad news. Career concerns encompasses effects of the management’s disclosure strategy on management compensation in the contemporaneous period as well as over a long horizon. The long-horizon effects might be from the impact on the manager’s career, e.g., promotion, employment opportunities within and outside the firm, and loss of employment.
One other interesting fact that they uncover in the study is when the delayed bad news is more likely to be released. In a word, it the trend is "give me the bad news last."
managers of small firms with greater inside ownership and leverage are more likely to delay large bad news write downs and special items until the 4th quarter of the fiscal year.
If I could get a look at the data set, I'd try and figure out just when in the 4th quarter that bad news tends to be released. My guess would be sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas or Christmas and New Year's- the time of the year when people are otherwise occupied and in a festive and giving, if not forgiving, mood.

Comments
Interesting report, and does confirm what happens in corporations, especially Western ones. Do you have any report that actually compares how managers from Easter Countries, like Asia, behave regarding this matter? And what’s best for the Company or Industry? It is clear that holding bad news is due to personal, egotistic reasons but at the end what’s the best to do?
Posted by: Gladys Moran | October 22, 2005 12:44 AM