Pain in the Gas
In today's Washington Post op-editorialist David Ignatius reflects on his recent 10-day trip to Iran. He begins his article by posing two questions that are anything but rhetorical:
At the end of a 10-day visit here, I am struggling with a question: Is the Iranian revolution of 27 years ago following the normal arc of history and moving toward a rational and stable society? Or is this country still exploding with radical energy and a desire to export its revolution to other Muslim nations?
Ignatius doesn't claim to have definitive answers to these questions. He does, however, point to much that is suggestive of them, to attitudes of the Iranian people and of officials that might help outsiders predict rather than react to events. Keeping with the theme of the article's title, "Tehran's Two Worlds: Veering Between Conciliation and Confrontation", Ignatius identitifies competing bases of power, conflicting interests, and ideological fault lines which the foes of Iran should be keen to exploit.
A particularly noteworthy difference of opinion Ignatius concerns the state and fate of the Iranian economy, particularly as it pertains to the price of oil:
Iran's business leaders know that in a globalized economy, Iran needs foreign investment. "Growth is closely related to cooperation with the international economy," says Ali Naghi Khamoushi, the president of the Iranian chamber of commerce, at a conference for foreign investors here. But after 27 years, Iran is used to going it alone, and business leaders don't seem especially worried about sanctions. Indeed, Iranians see a perverse economic benefit in defying the international community. "If we cooperate, oil is $7 a barrel. If we don't, it is $70," former defense minister Ali Shamkhani observes at the investment conference.
I don't whether either one of these men hold much or any sway in Iranian political and economic policy circles these days. But given the country's stubborn and worsening unemployment problems, especially among the youngest workers, The General's pain-in-the-gas approach to the economy is as naive as it would be disastrous if pursued to its logical conclusion. I wonder: how many with influence in Iran today think like the General and how many like the President of the Chamber of Commerce?
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