No-Glow Zones
The cover story for the January 25-31 issue of theMiddle East Economic Digest is entitled "Why the Gulf is Going Nuclear: The Case of Atomic Energy." While acknowledging that both environmental costs and the potential for weapons proflieration are substantial roadblocks, MEED maintains that the need to meet "the region's growing demand for energy" is what is driving Middle Eastern countries towards the development of civilian nuclear power. They offer three specific rationales, the first of which is economic:
The advocates of civlian nuclear power argue that (nuclear power plants) make economic sense. "The reason the region is now interested in nuclear power is exactly the same reason other regions are facing a nuclear renaissance," sayd Charles Hufnagel, spokesman for (French) Areva. "The cost of production is competitive and stable in the long term." The initial cost of a nucclear power plant are high, ranging from $4bn for a 1200 MW reactor to $5bn for a 1600 MW plant. But once it is up and running, the cost of operating a plant is relatively low.
Added to this is the revenue lost by using fossil fuels as feedstocks for running electrical utilities:
For now, Gulf countries are selling feedstock to their utility firms are subsidized prices which keeps the cost of electricity artificially low. ... Diverting more (oil and gas) to export markets would make greater economic sense.
There are also environmental benefits:
Unlike coal and gas-fired plants, nuclear power generation does not emit any carbon dioxide (CO2). The IEA estimates that replacing 1000 MW of coal-fired generation with nuclear power cuts CO2 emissions by 5-6 million tonnes a year.
Economic and environmental rationales aside, whether or not the Middle East and North Africa sees civilian nuclear power in the near future depends in large part on the ability deal effectively with...
...the more serious question (of) what will happen to spent fuel. Once removed from the reactor, the radioactive material is either stored or reprocessed. Reprocessing yields more energy, but it an also be used to produce weapons-grade plutonium. Third party enrichment is one way of reducing the risk of proliferation.
Until greater confidence in the ability of the IAEA, the UN's nuclear watchdog, to monitor, rein in (or if need be, thwart) the nuclear ambitions of a certain Middle Eastern state, the whole region is likely to remain a no-glow zone for some time to come.
