Over at The Belmont Club there's a short post about the possible KIA of al-Qaeda-in-Iraq-leader Abu Ayyub al-Masri. In the post itself, as well as in the ensuing comment thread, there's some speculation about whether the $5 Million bounty on said leader's head served as a motivation to the Sunni insurgents believed to have punched his ticket.

The question is relevant for a number of reasons. Any and every economist will tell you that incentives, both economic and intrinsic, are powerful motivators of behavior. Commenter "PeterBoston" rightly notes that the job of al-Qaeda-in-Iraq leader doesn't have much security. Short tenure aside, there appear to be an unlimited number of jihadis willing to take his place and to fill the lower ranking positions on that gory path to glory. Fortunately for us, our friends the Saudis are hard at work reducing the appeal of jihadism among would-be replacement killers :

Alarmed to find that detainees are emerging from the Guantanamo Bay prison camp and other U.S. detention centers more devoted than ever to radical Islam, Saudi Arabia is offering counseling, financial aid and even matchmaking to pull young militants away from terrorism. ... The program pays special attention to those released from the U.S. prison in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. Nearly every Saudi returning from American captivity undergoes up to 10 weeks of intense psychological tests, starting with an evaluation on the private plane that whisks him home from the American prison...

Continue reading "If you can't beat them, enjoin them" »

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I moved to Doha, Qatar in January of this year for work. There are three English-language international news networks on the cable package at my place- CNN International, BBC World, and Al-Jazeera's International (AJI), an English service whose local offices I drive past everyday.

While I don't speak Arabic, one thing seems certain: AJI is not just a translated re-broadcast of the Arabic one. It has studios in London and Doha and it produces much of its content for a global English-speaking audience independently from the Arabic service.

A good deal of that audience is patently anti-American, to be sure, and my guess is that all three of the aforementioned networks are competing for primacy among that segment.

That having been said, one shouldn't get the impression that every story on AJI is either an anti-American, anti-Bush hit piece or a pro-Al-Qaeda or pro-Jihadi puff piece. It isn’t the Bash-America-all-the-time network. A more apt description would be The Needle- Them-All-of-the-Time Network. That way no one thinks you are an American stooge or suckup. On the other hand, too much and too harsh of a needling and no self-respecting American official or pro-American Arab will appear on the network. It's a fine line: you have to needle them just enough so that they want to come on and give their side of the story or defend certain actions and policies, not so much that they dismiss you out of hand as hacks.

And in this regard, that’s what's so remarkable about AJE: I can hardly tell the difference between it and CNNi or BBC World. All three have attractive and articulate native English speakers as program hosts. (The photo on the right is of an "Al-Jazeera Aussie") All three have bureaus around the world with correspondents filing reports on topics of general interest, not just politics and war. All three are capable of providing a means by which world leaders and opinion-makers can reach hundreds of millions of English-speaking viewers world-wide. And as English becomes more widely accepted as the world's most important second language I can only foresee the audience for these three networks continuing to grow.

Continue reading "Like Three Peas in Pod" »

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In the comment thread of a recent Belmont post about the state of war between Israel and Lebanon and Hezbollah, "Aristides" left this cryptic comment: "If you want to read a hell of a (comment) thread, go here."

"Here", as it turns out, is a post entitled "Becoming a Refugee" on a Lebanese blog entitled "Lebanese Political Journal". The blog's mission is "to provide in-depth analysis in English on the political situation in Lebanon." And so it does. And quite admirably I might add.

As it's title suggests, in the post in question, a blogger by the name of "Lebanon.Profile" explains that the current spate of hostilities has made imperative his departure from Lebanon. His destination, interestingly, is Syria. While it's is outside the scope of one post or this blog to cover the political discussions on the thread, there was one aspect of LP's lament that caught my attention:

All my Hezbollah supporting friends are sticking around. They call the rest of us cowards. I guess we are. We want to do scientific research. We want our children to learn how to play the piano. We want to watch our stock porfolios burgeon. We can't do that here any more.

My thoughts about those remarks are these. Well of course he wants those things. He gives every appearance of being a thoughtful and decent soul. That said, does LP really think, I asked as I read, that these things can happen in Lebanon, in a country that

(1) won't fight for its independence, to be free of foreign influence

(2) is not exhibiting, at this crucial time, the propensity for or appreciation of critical thinking skills by its leaders who choose, instead, to point the finger outward rather than look inward

(3) has ceded, apparently out of fear and fecklessness, large swathes of it's territory to terrorists who take directions from a messianic, fascist theocrats hell-bent on genocide and support from a marginalized second-generation dictatorship

Scientific research, properly-functioning capital markets, and the ability to raise your children in freedom and without the ever-present prospect of war - all these good things come at a cost. The citizens in societies where these things happen are, by and large, characterized by institutions like self-sufficiency, a belief that hard work eventually pays off and is a reward in and of itself, personal and collective responsibility, respect for the rule of the laws of men, as well as a good measure of the live-and-let-live philosophy regarding non-injurious personal behavior.

Apparently LP and millions of others in the region remain blissfully- and perhaps willfully- ignorant of how such institutions, along with tremendous sacrifice, have allowed the world's prosperous democracies to achieve what they have and what they mean to keep...at all costs.

File Under: Belmont Club

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In a post entitled "A Modern Homage to Catalonia" Wretchard remarked that:

Terrorism is extortion in the service of politics. Attacks on civilian targets are whole-page advertisements taken out to flog these wares on a reluctant public. The military power of terrorists is negligable. Despite the fantasies of those who imagine Iraq to be Vietnam, with divisions of NVA sending tanks down the road to Saigon; with legions of laborers dragging artillery pieces across the mountains to pound surrounded French garrisons into submission -- it is not that. Rather, it is a development of the techniques pioneered in the Algerian conflict against the French. It is the political and media power of terror which is important, not their military strength. ... I would venture to say that terror would have won against the US and the West already despite the vast power of America were it not for the Internet, which has ironically made it possible for neutralize the propaganda power of terror. The Internet makes it possible to show terror up for the murder that it is. To strip it of supposed justification. To remind people of what is never mentioned in the papers: that Osama like all men goes and takes a shit. Made it possible to answer back. In a way, the Internet and the blogosphere is the sole remaining voice the victims; whether of terror or counter-terror.

In the comment thread Wretchard further observed:

I had occasion to see stats on how many readers a number of "conservative" blogs were reaching in aggregate and it was a very large figure. This doesn't mean that the "conservative" point of view will take over the world. But it does make make it extremely difficult for the Left to score it's "knockout" blow. It creates the political equivalent of the "fleet in being".

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "A Modern Homage to Catalonia"" »

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In his "Page 53" post, Belmont Club proprietor Wretchard examines why stories of some atrocities are buried while others become front page news. My comments was as follows:

Wretchard, Dymphna, et al: Three members of Yale University's Department of Economics have recently published a working paper that addresses an important gap in our understanding of whether, how, and to what degree media influences public opinion, political attitudes, and voting behavior. One of the most important features of this paper, entitled "Does the Media Matter? A Field Experiment Measuring the Effect of Newspapers on Voting Behavior and Political Opinions" is the question that it does not address, i.e. whether or not media bias exists. The reason why they don't is that this questions is already settled:

There is substantial evidence that media sources have identifiable political slants, but there has been relatively little study of the effects of media bias on the views and behavior of media consumers, or of the effect of mere exposure to news (irrespective of the slant, for example).

A key insight from the paper appears to be that awareness of bias may offset its influence while the assumption of neutrality can allow bias to work with greater effect. My review of the paper can be found in a post entitled "Does Media Matter?"

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The Belmont Club has a brief, interesting and interestingly titled post today: "Select * from tblVeterans." It concerns this AP story about the loss or theft of personal records of 26.5 million U.S. Veterans:

Personal data, including the Social Security numbers of 26.5 million U.S. veterans, were stolen from an employee of the Department of Veterans Affairs this month after he took computer disks home without authorization, the agency said Monday. The secretary for veterans affairs, Jim Nicholson, said there was no evidence so far that the burglars who robbed the employee's home had used the material - or even knew they had it. The employee, a data analyst whom Nicholson would not identify, has been placed on leave "pending the outcome of an investigation," the agency said on its Web site. Nicholson declined to comment further on the incident. Congressional sources who were briefed on the theft said the employee had taken the data disks home to work on a project.

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "Select from tblveterans"" »

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Dymphna, over at Gates of Vienna, has an interesting post today about why blogs often provide reporting superior on the same story to that of their mainstream media counterparts. She makes her point by comparing two articles on Venezuela's proposed sale of F-16 fighters to Cuba and Iran- one appearing in the Chicago Tribune and the other on the "In from the cold" blog. The differences are stark, leading Dymphna to remark: "You yawn over the instantly-forgotten MSM account. The blogosphere version sticks in your memory...(and) You also learn a bit about the complexity involved."

Continue reading "Comment on Gates of Vienna's "MSM Scrapings vs. Real Reporting"" »

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In a post entitled "Myth Making" there is an analysis of "one of the most famous media figures of the 1960s", Ernesto "Che" Guevara.

Ernesto "Che" Guevara was one of the most famous media figures of the 1960s. A high-ranking Cuban official and confidante of Fidel Castro, Guevara was appointed head of a Cuban delegation to the UN in 1964 and in the process became a public celebrity. ... Basically, Guevara entered Bolivia in late 1966 and started up a platoon-sized guerilla group. The group went on to kill 30 Bolivian army personnel before being surrounded and wiped out together with it's leader in late 1967. Action against Guevara's guerilla unit was conducted entirely by Bolivians, with some training assistance but with no actual command or direct involvement by US personnel. As a feat of arms, Guevara's effort in Bolivia is remarkably undistinguished and there must be dozens of guerilla leaders alive in the world today with a better showing. ...

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "Myth Making"" »

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Tigerhawk filled in for Wretchard during the latter's short walkabout. In a short post entitled "George P. Shultz and the origins of the Bush doctrine", he directed us to two posts:

I commend to you Dan Henninger's article this morning on George Shultz, "father of the Bush doctrine." I like to think that he read this post of mine on precisely the same subject. Both are well worth reading!

After reading those two essays, I left this reply:

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "George P. Shultz and the origins of the Bush doctrine"" »

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A Belmont Club post entitled "The First Front" examines the intellectual battle against Islamic extremism:

If developing "norms that challenge and expose extremist thought" are a prerequisite to challenging Islamic extremism then the road will be long and hard. Intellectual challenges to radical Islamism have largely been the effort of outcast intellectuals like Oriana Fallaci, Bat Y'eor, Hirsi Ali and others like them. They live in a shadow world, "scorned by the academic establishment for their politically incorrect views", as Bruce Bawer puts it; and literally on the run. Fallaci in fact, has been ordered to stand trial for "defaming Islam" in her native Italy. Hirsi Ali leads a precarious existence under round-the-clock protection from the Dutch government. ... Islam's intellectual challengers live a fugitive existence while its defenders move in a celebrity world. If challenging Islamic extremism intellectually is a necessity then the enterprise has gotten off to a bad start.

Comment "Skipsailing" said: "If there are any so called moderate muslims out there, let's see them." I replied to Skip with these remarks:

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "The First Front"" »

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In the comments section of the Red Harvest post at the Belmont Club, several people wondered about the apparent inability of mainstream media (MSM) organizations, particularly newspapers and TV news programs, to provide contextual, proportional, and comparative analyses of the events in Iraq. Here's a sample of the comments:

Dan said:

"If only more mainstream journalistic attention - and more op-ed attention - was devoted to the actual political parties, players, affiliations and intentions. This ought to have been far more of a focus - with far less emphasis, when discussed, on "US-backed" this and that - from the first provisional government. A journalistic failing of the first order. And we know how much they love pointing out failings."

Wretchard, the Belmont Club's proprietor, replied:

Dan, there were expectations that the manuever force that implemented OIF should have adapted faster to the insurgency. Maybe it should have. But by comparison the MSM doesn't seem to have adapted particularly well to covering stories in places where intimidation, disinformation and propaganda ops are not only practiced, but are actually a principal mode of combat.

Maybe the MSM should get more language capability for their correspondents, find ways of operating more securely (perhaps clandestinely) to avoid intimidation; run stringers like agents so they can cross check reports, etc. Perhaps they can realign resources too. I read somewhere that the CBS News Anchor's salary is equal to 50 correspondents. Maybe the MSM simply isn't structured to cover a story like this very well. Just speculating.

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "Red Harvest"" »

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In "Pretty Pictures, 2" there is further use of diagrams to illustrate the incentives and desired end-states of certain actors in Iraq:

It's kinda nice when an Iraqi resistance conference provides some confirmation for the pictures I've been drawing. Iraq the Model's latest posts throws more light on the relationship of the "political struggle" in Iraq to the insurgency. ... The insurgent's conference also provides a glimpse of how the struggle in Iraq is fully international. Elements in Syria and Iran are probably fully behind the politico-military campaign. It is not a case of Iraqi "Minutemen" struggling against the new Redcoats. Rather, Iraq is a central front of the War on Terror. Now putting both pictures together may give us some insight into how both sides are conducting their campaign. You can see both teams playing on the field and keep score, to use a sports analogy.

I shared these remarks concerning the diagrams and the interrelationships between the elements therein:

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "Pretty Pictures, 2"" »

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In "Pretty Pictures" Wretchard analyzes the situation in Iraq by "drawing diagrams." He offered these thoughts on the assessment of the now (June 8, 2006) deceased Abu Musab Zarqawi on Iraq's political situation:

Zarqawi, whatever his moral infirmities, is a man with a firm grasp of the facts. He would not have survived as long as he has without it. He understands when he has a losing hand and when to start a new game. It's an instinct common to survivors but amazingly rare among people who write for a living. By way of example, the richest man in Australia, Kerry Packer, recently died heart and renal disease. He was something of winner at making commercial bets and the tune that was played at his funeral was one that Zarqawi would have approved of, in a manner of speaking. " You got to know when to hold ’em, know when to fold ’em, Know when to walk away and know when to run. ..."

My comment was as follows:

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "Pretty Pictures"" »

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In a Belmont Club post entitled "A nightingale choked in Berkely Square" Wretchard describes the premature deaths of over 4000 people from smoke-laden fog that blanketed London for five days in 1952. The post contains a valuable history lesson for those who, as Wretchard says, are "accustomed to imagining a cleaner environmental past:"

Club regular "Charles Martel" shared this observation:

"I had a friend in college. Your typical leftist wingnut. I asked him if it cost 50% of the gross national product to clean up the air an additional 1% and if there was no proof that that additional 1% would demonstrably improve life expectancy or quality of life would he be willing to make the expenditure. He answered as all leftists must- in the affirmative."

My somewhat facetious comment was:

"Now, in addition to answering in the affirmative, it would seem that positive acts of obeisance to the omnipotent and omniscient Japanese goddess (of the environment), Kyoto, are also a must."

I later remarked in an "update" to my "The Dirty Half Dozen" post:

It seems that my insinuation that Greens and environmentalists would invoke God to their side in the fight to save the planet was not so far off. According to Australian blogger Tim Blair, Greens in South Australia are telling voters that Jesus would vote for them. Tim doubts, however, that Jesus would do such a thing. Why, he asks, would he vote for a rival faith?

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In a post entitled, Center of Gravity, Wretchard said:

I am somewhat disappointed with Secretary Rumsfeld's response to the subject of the disinformation campaign he himself brings up: "that would be like trying to stop the tide. The last time out he described the enemy as winning the information war. Here he speaks of it again. But what to do about it?

My response was as follows:

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "Center of Gravity"" »

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In "The lamp under the bushel basket" we find a discussion of how "the US goverment, the State Department in particular, is playing by gentleman's rules in the information war with Iran", what the consequences are, and how the situation might be rectified:

In a open post session to identify ways to improve US information warfare, many Belmont commenters believed that the government was by nature incapable of doing the job. Some suggestions of private and legal information warfare activities to take up the slack included (u)sing private resources, such as bloggers, volunteers, institutes to monitor open source foreign language newspapers, broadcasts and websites to augment the official intel effort. Roger Simon at Pajamas Media tried the idea out on James Woolsey at a videotaped interview and received some encouragement (and) (p)roviding support for individuals being persecuted for supporting the allied cause in the War on Terror in the manner of the "Underground Railroad." ... It might be only a slight exaggeration to say that Daniel Pipes, Bat Ye'or, Ibn Warraq and Hirsi Ali by themselves do more information warfare damage than the whole State Department cumulatively. Private effort should definitely not be discounted.

My comments regarded the matter of "private effort" :

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "The Lamp Under the Bushel Basket"" »

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Nowhere have such examples been more prescient recently than last week in the field of journalism, when two high-quality, equally highly acclaimed weblogs published well-written, erudite and startlingly professional pieces of investigative journalism.

However, the low cost of entry into Internet publishing makes it possible for authors to create specialty publications which can effectively reach their audiences. Whether that's good or bad is the subject of debate. David Ignatius, writing in the Washington Post argues that unfiltered content, no longer moderated by the Gatekeepers, may be a dangerous and loose cannon.

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's " The tree of knowledge of good and evil"" »

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In "The Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil" is a discussion of "the growing competitiveness of the blogs with mainstream media in certain respects."

I'm not sure that in-depth blog reports or unedited video will ever have the mass appeal of slickly packaged print and video products which are simplified so that they can be digested at a glance or reduced into a single memorable soundbite. There's a real market in content-reduced information as the Reader's Digest well knew, and that segment will probably remain alive and well.

However, the low cost of entry into Internet publishing makes it possible for authors to create specialty publications which can effectively reach their audiences. Whether that's good or bad is the subject of debate. David Ignatius, writing in the Washington Post argues that unfiltered content, no longer moderated by the Gatekeepers, may be a dangerous and loose cannon. ... What do you think?

Here's what I thought:

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "The Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil"" »

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A rather short Belmont post, "Danish Solodarity Dinner", read as follows:

Those who want to support the Danes for their defense of freedom of speech can serve Samizdata's sample menu. Nope. Not just butter cookies and canned ham.

I replied with an excerpt from my "Will the Boycott of Danish Goods Work?"

With all the apologies and recriminations and warnings flying back and forth, scant attention has been devoted to the question of whether boycotts even work and if so, how well. At first it seems like a no-brainer. In theory, you stop buying goods from some offensive or obnoxious company or country and you hit them where it hurts- in the pocketbook. In practice, it is not that simple. Here is a sample of abstracts taken from three research papers published in the last several years on the efficacy of boycotts, research that points out the need for patience, a carefully-crafted strategy for the management of public perception, and a sophisticated understanding of the incentive structure of the target. One other aspect of the story that is not being discussed is that it was the Danes that led a boycott of their own against a highly unpopular Middle Eastern country in 2002 - Israel.

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In a Belmont Club post entitled "Progressive Thinking" laments the behavior of the "ideological heirs" of the "Inquisitions", the politically correct and their "rejection of the scientific method" , their assault on the "intellectual core" of the West.

Whole categories of discourse are now being outlawed in the West. At least two celebrities are fighting this trend, probably because they lead active lives of the mind. One of them is Mr. Bean. ... The other is Michael Crichton. At a speech entitled "Fear, Complexity, Environmental Management in the 21st Century" that he gave before Washington Center for Complexity and Public Policy, Crichton described one the major unrecognized dangers stalking the world: bad information. Crichton meticulously showed how grossly hysterical coverage of Chernobyl reactor incident, for example, caused deaths far more numerous than the incident itself. He went on to trace the history of public policy fads, Global Cooling, the predicted Y2K meltdown, the Population Bomb, Electromagnetic Fields and so on, and shows how we have nearly forgotten them in our rush to replace them with new ones. We live once again, in Carl Sagan's phrase, in a demon-haunted world.

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "Progressive Thinking"" »

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In a post entitled "Venezuela and Peak Oil", Wretchard reported on several recently economic policy initiatives and developments in Venezuela - tight price controls on retail prices, booming automobile sales, and a decision to provide cheap heating oil to poor Americans. He remarked that:

These can be taken as indicators of the superiority of the socialist system of economics over dog-eat-dog capitalism. Or they can be seen as an economic disaster waiting to overwhelm Venezuela the moment current oil prices begin to decline. But according to leftish Alternet, 2006 may mark the year that world oil supplies begin their irreversible march upward, according to the Peak Oil scenario (also here), in which case Hugo Chavez can keep up his weird economics indefinitely on the back of steadily rising oil prices. But when prices rise sufficiently other sources besides the conventional become profitable to develop. CBC predicts that with prices rising, oil sands will be the energy source of the future.

My comment was as follows:

Continue reading "Comment on Belmont's "Venezuela and Peak Oil"" »

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In Baghdad County, Wretchard wonders about the effect that Operation Iraqi Freedom has had on America, specifically the capabilities of the veterans of its Armed Services:

Whether OIF has wrenched events in the Middle East from their old tracks and put them on a better route remains to be seen. What is less debateable is that OIF has subtly changed America. The Armed Forces have acquired capabilities they never had before. Bill Roggio in Patrolling Haqlaniyah describes three-tour veterans who can talk politics with Iraqis. For many individual Americans Iraq is now something less than home and something more than a foreign country. For America as a whole, one thing that no politician will dispute in 2008 is that aside from being a European and Pacific power -- which it has been since the end of the Second World War -- the US is now a part of the strategic landscape of the Middle East and Central Asia.

I remarked:

I predict that many of these men and women will return for fourth and fifth and sixth tours of duty- only duty of another kind. One day Iraq will be ready, willing, and able to do business. And were I running a business instead of blogging about it, these former soldiers would high on my list of people to hire. After all, they have an understanding of the people, the language, the region, and the political landscape. They know much about leadership, strategy, logistics, organization design, planning, and the marshalling of resources and capabilities to meet clearly-defined objectives. In short, they are ideally suited to help Iraqi one day erect the other pillar of a free society- the free enterprise system. And though that day has yet to dawn, preparations are quietly underway.

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